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Ethan Ilzetzki

Associate Professor

London School of Economics

Centre for Macroeconomics

Centre for Economic Policy Research

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Head of the CfM-CEPR Panel of Experts

Editorial board, Journal of Monetary Economics

Editorial board, IMF Economic Review

ERC Consolidated Grant awardee 2021

(UKRI replacement)

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Google Scholar

IDEAS/REPEC

Curriculum Vitae

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Email : e.ilzetzki@lse.ac.uk 
Room number: SAL.1.22

Address:

Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

Research

Measuring Productivity Dispersion: Lessons From Counting One-Hundred Million Ballots (with Saverio Simonelli), R&R Economic Journal

Paper     Bibtex     Slides     Map     Data

Media: Les Echos

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Fiscal Rules and Market Discipline (with Heidi Christina Thysen) IMF Economic Review, Oct. 2024.

Paper     Published Version     Bibtex     Slides     Video Presentation (At 1:17)

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Learning by Necessity: Government Demand, Capacity Constraints, and Productivity Growth, American Economic Review, 114 (8): 2436–71, Aug. 2024.

Paper          Published Version     Bibtex     Slides    Video Presentation

Media: New Things Under the Sun blog     

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Kosher Pork (with Allan Drazen), Journal of Public Economics 277: Nov. 2023.  

Bibtex

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Fiscal Events and Anchored Inflation Expectations, Policy Note for the 10th Asian Monetary Policy Forum, May 2023.

Bibtex     Slides     Conference Webpage     

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Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes (with Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff). Handbook of International Economics, vol 6, Gita Gopinath, Elhanan Helpman and Kenneth Rogoff, eds, 2022.

Bibtex     Slides     Video Presentation     Published Version 

Media: Financial Times 26.11.21

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Commentary: Inflation as a Fiscal Limit Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: August 2022

"Inflation as a Fiscal Limit" by Bianchi and Melosi. â€‹ General Discussion

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The Puzzling Change in the International Transmission of U.S. Macroeconomic Policy Shocks (with Keyu Jin),

Journal of International Economics, 130: May 2021.

Bibtex    Published Version

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Will the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive Covid-19? (with Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff). Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2020.

Bibtex     Slides     Summary     Video of Conference     Project Syndicate      Macro Musings Podcast     Vox Article

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Why is the Euro Punching Below its Weight? (with Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff). Economic Policy, 35(3), 2020.

Bibtex     Slides     Published Version

Media: Financial Times 4.11.19     Financial Times 5.12.19     Les Echos 10.06.20      Macro Musings Podcast      

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Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches (with Michael Best, James Cloyne, and Henrik Kleven). Review of Economic Studies, 89:2, 2020.

Bibtex     Slides     Bunching at Mortgage Notches     Published Version

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​The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach (with James Cloyne, Kilian Huber, and Henrik Kleven), American Economic Review, 109:6, 2019.

Bibtex     Slides     Vox Summary     Chicago Booth Review Summary     Published Version

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Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold? (with Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff), Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134:2, 599–646, 2019.

Bibtex     Slides     Anchor Currencies     Exchange Rate Classifications    Data     Country Chronologies     Appendix    

Published Version 

Media: Economist, Financial Times, Macro Musings podcast

Top 1% most cited article in economics

Top-20 most cited article in the QJE, past decade (source: Scopus)

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Tax Reform and the Political Economy of the Tax Base, Journal of Public Economics, 164, pp. 197-2010, 2018.

Bibtex     Slides     Published Version     Appendix     Working paper version with historical survey of tax reforms

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How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers? (with Enrique G. Mendoza and Carlos A. Vegh), Journal of Monetary Economics 60:2, pp. 239-254, 2013.

Bibtex     Data     Fiscal Multipliers: Fixed and Flex

Media: New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Irish IndependentEconomist ButtonwoodKrugman Blog, Mankiw Blog, Econbrowser

Top 1% most cited article in economics         

Top-100 most cited article in JME (all times ; top-10 in past 20 years; source: Scopus).

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Weak States and Steady States: The Dynamics of Fiscal Capacity (with Tim Besley and Torsten Persson), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5:4, pp. 205-32, 2013.

Bibtex

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Rent-Seeking Distortions and Fiscal Procyclicality, Journal of Development Economics 96, 2011, pp. 30-46.

Bibtex

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Fiscal Policy and Debt Dynamics in Developing Countries, May 2011

Bibtex     Data

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Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction? (With Carlos A. Vegh), July 2008

Bibtex 

Research

Current Teaching

EC442: First year macro PhD

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EC558: Second year political economy PhD

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PP440: Macroeconomics for Public Policy (in the School of Public Policy)

Teaching

Media, Popular Writings & Public Lectures

VoxEU Articles

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UK in a Changing EU Conference: From Research to Policy. I talk about the UK Macro framework.

See my written report here.

Jan 31 2024

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Sky News asks me whether higher public sector pay would lead to inflation.

Jan 4 2023

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Financial Times Survey of top 101 UK economists

Jan 3 2023

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Macro Musings Podcast, Interview on the UK crisis, the strong $, fiscal policy and inflation, and monetary policy shocks

Nov 2022

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Euronews: Autumn statement: Hunt strives to play up UK's performance as he sets out austere budget

I talk about the autumn statement and Brexit.

17 Nov 22

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Note on the UK Fiscal Crisis of 2022

Ethan Ilzetzki, Oct 2022

Slides Nov 2022

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GB News: Interview about the UK economy

Oct 19, 2022

 

​Le Temps (Swiss Newspaper): Interview about the UK economy

Oct 8, 2022

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RSI (Swiss TV): Interview about the UK economy

Oct 8, 2022

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Metro Online: After 14 years of misery, UK facing another 2008-style crisis

Interview ith Sean Seddon, Oct 2, 2022

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ORF (Austrian radio): interview on "mini-Budget"

Sep 23, 2022

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New York Times: quotes me on the new UK currency.

September 9, 2022

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Jackson Hole discussion of "Inflation as a Fiscal Limit" by Bianchi and Melosi. 

August 2022

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ZDF (German television): interview on inflation in the UK. 

August 2022

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CNN: Two vie to replace Boris Johnson. Neither has 'a true plan' to fix its ailing economy

Anna Cooban, July 24, 2022

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LSE Explainer on inflation and interest rates

July, 2022

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Guardian: I'm quoted on ERC research funding and Brexit

Lisa O'Carroll, 25 April 2022

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Bloomberg Radio: Interview about Chancellor's Spring Statement (UK Budget) (minute 16)

March 23, 2022

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BBC News (TV): Interview about the UK Cost of Living Crisis

February 12, 2022 

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FT: The Poisoned Chalice of the Fed Chair Job 

John Plender, Nov 26, 2021

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GWG - ECFIN - JRC Conference on the "Assessment of Output Gaps and Potential Output in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath". Slides​

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Macro Musings Podcast, Interview on the euro, exchange rate volatility & inflation prospects                        

Dec 2020

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Newsweek: The World Is $277 Trillion in Debt So Why Aren't Economists More Worried? 

Alex Hudson, Nov 24, 2020

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Guardian: Exchange rates have been stable in the Covid crisis. 

Ken Rogoff, Nov 16, 2020

 

Project Syndicate: The Calm Before the Exchange Rate Storm,

Ken Rogoff, Nov 10, 2020

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​Brookings Panel on Economic Activity,

Presentation, Sep 24, 2020       

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Times: Video explainer on public debt

July 8, 2020

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Guardian: How worrying is Britain's debt? Surprisingly, we economists say: not very

Op ed, June 2020

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Les Echos: L'internationalisation de l'euro toujours au point mort,

Nessim Aït-Kacimi, Jun 10, 2020

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​VoxEU: Ramping up ventilator production: Lessons from WWII

Article, April 2020, (with Hugo Reichardt)

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FT: Europe First: taking on the dominance of the US dollar

Martin Sandbu, Dec 5, 2019.

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FT: What the ECB Bashers Get Wrong,

Martin Sandbu, Nov 7, 2019

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IMF Annual Research Conference:

Discussion on public debt and r<g around minute 55, November 2019

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FT: China's currency will not replace the US dollar,

Colby Smith, Sep 19, 2019

                     

Globes

Interview, Jan 2018 (in Hebrew)

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Les Echos: La productivité, ça se cultive,

Jean-Marc Vittori, 25 Sep 2017

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Macro Musings podcast, May 2017

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Economist: Donald Trump and the Dollar Standard,

Free Exchange, Feb 9, 2017.

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Invstr Video on fiscal policy, Nov 2016

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CfM Public Lecture: Fiscal Policy During Recessions and Recoveries, LSE Feb 2014

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LSE US Centre Blog on the Affordable Care Act, 2013

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BBC: Interview, September 2012

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Bloomberg: Interview,

Mar 2012

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New York Times: Vector Autoregressions and Keynesian Macro

Paul Krugman (blog post) Oct 17, 2011

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Economist: Tuesday Morning Quarterbacking

Buttonwood, Aug 11, 2011

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CNN: Debt deal: No cause for celebration

Op Ed, Aug 1, 2011

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Econbroser: Multiplier estimates, across countries, across states, across time

July, 2011

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Irish Independent: State stimuli won't work without fall in interest rates, says research

Brendan Keenan, Dec 16, 2010

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Wall Street Journal: Why the Spending Stimulus Failed

Michael Boskin, Dec 1, 2010

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New York Times: The Two Cultures

David Brooks, Nov 15, 2010

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American Enterprise Institute: Government Response to Financial Crisis,

Presentation, Oct 2009

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A Victory for Mudell-Flemming​

Greg Mankiw, blog post, Oct 5, 2009

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New York Times: Multiplying Multipliers

Paul Krugman (blog post) Oct 1, 2009

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