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Ethan Ilzetzki

Associate Professor

London School of Economics

Centre for Macroeconomics

Centre for Economic Policy Research

Head of the CfM-CEPR Panel of Experts

Editorial board, Journal of Monetary Economics

Editorial board, IMF Economic Review

ERC Consolidated Grant awardee 2021

(UKRI replacement)

Google Scholar


Curriculum Vitae

Email : 
Room number: SAL.1.22


Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom


Fiscal Rules and Market Discipline (with Heidi Christina Thysen) R&R IMF Economic Review

Paper     Bibtex     Slides     Video Presentation (At 1:17)

Measuring Productivity Dispersion: Lessons From Counting One-Hundred Million Ballots (with Saverio Simonelli), R&R Economic Journal

Paper     Bibtex     Slides     Map     Data

Media: Les Echos

Learning by Necessity: Government Demand, Capacity Constraints, and Productivity Growth accepted at the American Economic Review, May 2024

Paper     Bibtex     Slides    Video Presentation

Media: New Things Under the Sun blog     

Kosher Pork (with Allan Drazen), Journal of Public Economics 277: Nov. 2023.  


Fiscal Events and Anchored Inflation Expectations, Policy Note for the 10th Asian Monetary Policy Forum, May 2023.

Bibtex     Slides     Conference Webpage     

Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes (with Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff). Handbook of International Economics, vol 6, Gita Gopinath, Elhanan Helpman and Kenneth Rogoff, eds, 2022.

Bibtex     Slides     Video Presentation     Published Version 

Media: Financial Times 26.11.21

Commentary: Inflation as a Fiscal Limit Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: August 2022

- "Inflation as a Fiscal Limit" by Bianchi and Melosi.

- General Discussion

The Puzzling Change in the International Transmission of U.S. Macroeconomic Policy Shocks (with Keyu Jin),

Journal of International Economics, 130: May 2021.

Bibtex    Published Version

Will the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive Covid-19? (with Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff). Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2020.

Bibtex     Slides     Summary     Video of Conference     Project Syndicate      Macro Musings Podcast     Vox Article

Why is the Euro Punching Below its Weight? (with Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff). Economic Policy, 35(3), 2020.

Bibtex     Slides     Published Version

Media: Financial Times 4.11.19     Financial Times 5.12.19     Les Echos 10.06.20      Macro Musings Podcast      

Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches (with Michael Best, James Cloyne, and Henrik Kleven). Review of Economic Studies, 89:2, 2020.

Bibtex     Slides     Bunching at Mortgage Notches     Published Version

The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach (with James Cloyne, Kilian Huber, and Henrik Kleven), American Economic Review, 109:6, 2019.

Bibtex     Slides     Vox Summary     Chicago Booth Review Summary     Published Version

Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold? (with Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff), Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134:2, 599–646, 2019.

Bibtex     Slides     Anchor Currencies     Exchange Rate Classifications    Data     Country Chronologies     Appendix    

Published Version 

Media: Economist, Financial Times, Macro Musings podcast

Top 1% most cited article in economics

Top-20 most cited article in the QJE, past decade (source: Scopus)

Tax Reform and the Political Economy of the Tax Base, Journal of Public Economics, 164, pp. 197-2010, 2018.

Bibtex     Slides     Published Version     Appendix     Working paper version with historical survey of tax reforms

How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers? (with Enrique G. Mendoza and Carlos A. Vegh), Journal of Monetary Economics 60:2, pp. 239-254, 2013.

Bibtex     Data     Fiscal Multipliers: Fixed and Flex

Media: New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Irish IndependentEconomist ButtonwoodKrugman Blog, Mankiw Blog, Econbrowser

Top 1% most cited article in economics         

Top-100 most cited article in JME (all times ; top-10 in past 20 years; source: Scopus).

Weak States and Steady States: The Dynamics of Fiscal Capacity (with Tim Besley and Torsten Persson), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5:4, pp. 205-32, 2013.


Rent-Seeking Distortions and Fiscal Procyclicality, Journal of Development Economics 96, 2011, pp. 30-46.


Fiscal Policy and Debt Dynamics in Developing Countries, May 2011

Bibtex     Data

Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction? (With Carlos A. Vegh), July 2008



Current Teaching

EC442: First year macro PhD

EC540: Second year political economy PhD

PP440: Macroeconomics for Public Policy


Media, Popular Writings & Public Lectures

VoxEU Articles

UK in a Changing EU Conference: From Research to Policy. I talk about the UK Macro framework.

See my written report here.

Jan 31 2024

Sky News asks me whether higher public sector pay would lead to inflation.

Jan 4 2023

Financial Times Survey of top 101 UK economists

Jan 3 2023

Macro Musings Podcast, Interview on the UK crisis, the strong $, fiscal policy and inflation, and monetary policy shocks

Nov 2022

Euronews: Autumn statement: Hunt strives to play up UK's performance as he sets out austere budget

I talk about the autumn statement and Brexit.

17 Nov 22

Note on the UK Fiscal Crisis of 2022

Ethan Ilzetzki, Oct 2022

Slides Nov 2022

GB News: Interview about the UK economy

Oct 19, 2022


​Le Temps (Swiss Newspaper): Interview about the UK economy

Oct 8, 2022

RSI (Swiss TV): Interview about the UK economy

Oct 8, 2022

Metro Online: After 14 years of misery, UK facing another 2008-style crisis

Interview ith Sean Seddon, Oct 2, 2022

ORF (Austrian radio): interview on "mini-Budget"

Sep 23, 2022

New York Times: quotes me on the new UK currency.

September 9, 2022

Jackson Hole discussion of "Inflation as a Fiscal Limit" by Bianchi and Melosi. 

August 2022

ZDF (German television): interview on inflation in the UK. 

August 2022

CNN: Two vie to replace Boris Johnson. Neither has 'a true plan' to fix its ailing economy

Anna Cooban, July 24, 2022

LSE Explainer on inflation and interest rates

July, 2022

Guardian: I'm quoted on ERC research funding and Brexit

Lisa O'Carroll, 25 April 2022

Bloomberg Radio: Interview about Chancellor's Spring Statement (UK Budget) (minute 16)

March 23, 2022

BBC News (TV): Interview about the UK Cost of Living Crisis

February 12, 2022 

FT: The Poisoned Chalice of the Fed Chair Job 

John Plender, Nov 26, 2021

GWG - ECFIN - JRC Conference on the "Assessment of Output Gaps and Potential Output in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath". Slides

Macro Musings Podcast, Interview on the euro, exchange rate volatility & inflation prospects                        

Dec 2020

Newsweek: The World Is $277 Trillion in Debt So Why Aren't Economists More Worried? 

Alex Hudson, Nov 24, 2020

Guardian: Exchange rates have been stable in the Covid crisis. 

Ken Rogoff, Nov 16, 2020


Project Syndicate: The Calm Before the Exchange Rate Storm,

Ken Rogoff, Nov 10, 2020

Brookings Panel on Economic Activity,

Presentation, Sep 24, 2020       

Times: Video explainer on public debt

July 8, 2020

Guardian: How worrying is Britain's debt? Surprisingly, we economists say: not very

Op ed, June 2020

Les Echos: L'internationalisation de l'euro toujours au point mort,

Nessim Aït-Kacimi, Jun 10, 2020

VoxEU: Ramping up ventilator production: Lessons from WWII

Article, April 2020, (with Hugo Reichardt)

FT: Europe First: taking on the dominance of the US dollar

Martin Sandbu, Dec 5, 2019.

FT: What the ECB Bashers Get Wrong,

Martin Sandbu, Nov 7, 2019

IMF Annual Research Conference:

Discussion on public debt and r<g around minute 55, November 2019

FT: China's currency will not replace the US dollar,

Colby Smith, Sep 19, 2019



Interview, Jan 2018 (in Hebrew)

Les Echos: La productivité, ça se cultive,

Jean-Marc Vittori, 25 Sep 2017

Macro Musings podcast, May 2017

Economist: Donald Trump and the Dollar Standard,

Free Exchange, Feb 9, 2017.

Invstr Video on fiscal policy, Nov 2016

CfM Public Lecture: Fiscal Policy During Recessions and Recoveries, LSE Feb 2014

LSE US Centre Blog on the Affordable Care Act, 2013

BBC: Interview, September 2012

Bloomberg: Interview,

Mar 2012

New York Times: Vector Autoregressions and Keynesian Macro

Paul Krugman (blog post) Oct 17, 2011

Economist: Tuesday Morning Quarterbacking

Buttonwood, Aug 11, 2011

CNN: Debt deal: No cause for celebration

Op Ed, Aug 1, 2011

Econbroser: Multiplier estimates, across countries, across states, across time

July, 2011

Irish Independent: State stimuli won't work without fall in interest rates, says research

Brendan Keenan, Dec 16, 2010

Wall Street Journal: Why the Spending Stimulus Failed

Michael Boskin, Dec 1, 2010

New York Times: The Two Cultures

David Brooks, Nov 15, 2010

American Enterprise Institute: Government Response to Financial Crisis,

Presentation, Oct 2009

A Victory for Mudell-Flemming

Greg Mankiw, blog post, Oct 5, 2009

New York Times: Multiplying Multipliers

Paul Krugman (blog post) Oct 1, 2009

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