London School of Economics
Centre for Macroeconomics
Centre for Economic Policy Research
Head of the CfM-CEPR Panel of Experts
Editorial board, Journal of Monetary Economics
Editorial board, IMF Economic Review
ERC Consolidated Grant awardee 2021
Email : email@example.com
Room number: 32L.1.22
London, WC2A 2AE
Learning by Necessity: Government Demand, Capacity Constraints, and Productivity Growth
Media: New Things Under the Sun blog
Kosher Pork (with Allan Drazen), R&R Journal of Public Economics
Updated version coming soon
Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes (with Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff). Handbook of International Economics, vol 6, Gita Gopinath, Elhanan Helpman and Kenneth Rogoff, eds, 2022.
Bibtex Slides Video Presentation Published Version
Media: Financial Times 26.11.21
The Puzzling Change in the International Transmission of U.S. Macroeconomic Policy Shocks (with Keyu Jin),
Journal of International Economics, 130: May 2021.
Will the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive Covid-19? (with Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff). Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2020.
Bibtex Slides Summary Video of Conference Project Syndicate Macro Musings Podcast
Why is the Euro Punching Below its Weight? (with Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff). Economic Policy, 35(3), 2020.
Bibtex Slides Published Version
Media: Financial Times 4.11.19 Financial Times 5.12.19 Les Echos 10.06.20 Macro Musings Podcast
Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches (with Michael Best, James Cloyne, and Henrik Kleven). Review of Economic Studies, 89:2, 2020.
Bibtex Slides Bunching at Mortgage Notches Published Version
The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach (with James Cloyne, Kilian Huber, and Henrik Kleven), American Economic Review, 109:6, 2019.
Bibtex Slides Vox Summary Chicago Booth Review Summary Published Version
Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold? (with Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff), Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134:2, 599–646, 2019.
Bibtex Slides Anchor Currencies Exchange Rate Classifications Data Country Chronologies Appendix
Media: Economist, Financial Times, Macro Musings podcast
Top-20 most cited article in economics based on recent citations
Top 1% most cited article in economics
Tax Reform and the Political Economy of the Tax Base, Journal of Public Economics, 164, pp. 197-2010, 2018.
Bibtex Slides Published Version Appendix
How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers? (with Enrique G. Mendoza and Carlos A. Vegh), Journal of Monetary Economics 60:2, pp. 239-254, 2013.
Bibtex Data Fiscal Multipliers: Fixed and Flex
Media: New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Irish Independent, Economist Buttonwood, Krugman Blog, Mankiw Blog, Econbrowser
Top-5 most cited JME article in the past decade
Top 1% most cited article in economics
Weak States and Steady States: The Dynamics of Fiscal Capacity (with Tim Besley and Torsten Persson), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5:4, pp. 205-32, 2013.
Rent-Seeking Distortions and Fiscal Procyclicality, Journal of Development Economics 96, 2011, pp. 30-46.
Measuring Productivity Dispersion: Lessons From Counting One-Hundred Million Ballots (with Saverio Simonelli),
Media: Les Echos
Fiscal Policy and Debt Dynamics in Developing Countries, May 2011
Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction? (With Carlos A. Vegh), July 2008
EC442: First year macro PhD
EC540: Second year political economy PhD
PP404: Economics for Public Policy
PP440: Macroeconomics for Public Policy
Media, Popular Writings & Public Lectures
Sky News asks me whether higher public sector pay would lead to inflation.
Jan 4 2023
Financial Times Survey of top 101 UK economists
Jan 3 2023
Macro Musings Podcast, Interview on the UK crisis, the strong $, fiscal policy and inflation, and monetary policy shocks
Euronews: Autumn statement: Hunt strives to play up UK's performance as he sets out austere budget
I talk about the autumn statement and Brexit.
17 Nov 22
Note on the UK Fiscal Crisis of 2022
Ethan Ilzetzki, Oct 2022
GB News: Interview about the UK economy
Oct 19, 2022
Le Temps (Swiss Newspaper): Interview about the UK economy
Oct 8, 2022
RSI (Swiss TV): Interview about the UK economy
Oct 8, 2022
Metro Online: After 14 years of misery, UK facing another 2008-style crisis
Interview ith Sean Seddon, Oct 2, 2022
ORF (Austrian radio): interview on "mini-Budget"
Sep 23, 2022
New York Times: quotes me on the new UK currency.
September 9, 2022
Jackson Hole discussion of "Inflation as a Fiscal Limit" by Bianchi and Melosi.
ZDF (German television): interview on inflation in the UK.
CNN: Two vie to replace Boris Johnson. Neither has 'a true plan' to fix its ailing economy
Anna Cooban, July 24, 2022
LSE Explainer on inflation and interest rates
Guardian: I'm quoted on ERC research funding and Brexit
Lisa O'Carroll, 25 April 2022
Bloomberg Radio: Interview about Chancellor's Spring Statement (UK Budget) (minute 16)
March 23, 2022
BBC News (TV): Interview about the UK Cost of Living Crisis
February 12, 2022
FT: The Poisoned Chalice of the Fed Chair Job
John Plender, Nov 26, 2021
GWG - ECFIN - JRC Conference on the "Assessment of Output Gaps and Potential Output in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath". Slides
Macro Musings Podcast, Interview on the euro, exchange rate volatility & inflation prospects
Newsweek: The World Is $277 Trillion in Debt So Why Aren't Economists More Worried?
Alex Hudson, Nov 24, 2020
Guardian: Exchange rates have been stable in the Covid crisis.
Ken Rogoff, Nov 16, 2020
Project Syndicate: The Calm Before the Exchange Rate Storm,
Ken Rogoff, Nov 10, 2020
Brookings Panel on Economic Activity,
Presentation, Sep 24, 2020
Times: Video explainer on public debt
July 8, 2020
Guardian: How worrying is Britain's debt? Surprisingly, we economists say: not very
Op ed, June 2020
Les Echos: L'internationalisation de l'euro toujours au point mort,
Nessim Aït-Kacimi, Jun 10, 2020
VoxEU: Ramping up ventilator production: Lessons from WWII
Article, April 2020, (with Hugo Reichardt)
FT: Europe First: taking on the dominance of the US dollar
Martin Sandbu, Dec 5, 2019.
FT: What the ECB Bashers Get Wrong,
Martin Sandbu, Nov 7, 2019
IMF Annual Research Conference:
Discussion on public debt and r<g around minute 55, November 2019
FT: China's currency will not replace the US dollar,
Colby Smith, Sep 19, 2019
Interview, Jan 2018 (in Hebrew)
Les Echos: La productivité, ça se cultive,
Jean-Marc Vittori, 25 Sep 2017
Macro Musings podcast, May 2017
Economist: Donald Trump and the Dollar Standard,
Free Exchange, Feb 9, 2017.
Invstr Video on fiscal policy, Nov 2016
CfM Public Lecture: Fiscal Policy During Recessions and Recoveries, LSE Feb 2014
LSE US Centre Blog on the Affordable Care Act, 2013
BBC: Interview, September 2012
New York Times: Vector Autoregressions and Keynesian Macro
Paul Krugman (blog post) Oct 17, 2011
Economist: Tuesday Morning Quarterbacking
Buttonwood, Aug 11, 2011
CNN: Debt deal: No cause for celebration
Op Ed, Aug 1, 2011
Econbroser: Multiplier estimates, across countries, across states, across time
Irish Independent: State stimuli won't work without fall in interest rates, says research
Brendan Keenan, Dec 16, 2010
Wall Street Journal: Why the Spending Stimulus Failed
Michael Boskin, Dec 1, 2010
New York Times: The Two Cultures
David Brooks, Nov 15, 2010
American Enterprise Institute: Government Response to Financial Crisis,
Presentation, Oct 2009
A Victory for Mudell-Flemming
Greg Mankiw, blog post, Oct 5, 2009
New York Times: Multiplying Multipliers
Paul Krugman (blog post) Oct 1, 2009